Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be engaged in combat for this long.”

These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how brazen the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”