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The direst possible consequences of the climate crisis for the UK have been mapped by researchers, encompassing a scorching 4C rise in average temperatures to a two-metre increase in ocean levels. A separate possibility predicts a drop of 6C in temperatures following the collapse of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt agriculture and energy needs.

Credible Events, Not Predictions

These consequences, a number of which are associated with irreversible climate shifts, are considered as improbable but possible. The team explained that these projections filled a gap in planning that had rendered the UK not ready for extreme outcomes.

"The climate extremes we have mapped should not be seen as certainties, but they are plausible," said the professor who led the research. "Britain has been formulating policy in the absence of the frameworks to test against extreme possibilities. We've now supplied policymakers what they need to prepare for climate outcomes they wish to avoid, but must not overlook."

A Spectrum of Severe Conditions Projections

A second set of worst-case scenarios maps the potential extent of severe conditions between now and the close of the 2100s. These show that temperatures could soar in some months by up to 6C higher than the norm, while rainfall could be 300% of normal levels.

The probability of the extreme scenarios occurring remains uncertain due to a lack of certainty about what action will be implemented to tackle global warming and how the climate system will behave. This analysis was described as similar to national security risk assessments or scenario planning for financial systems.

Key Possibility Highlights

• Four-Degree Warming: Worldwide averages rising well above 4C by 2100 could happen if emissions cuts breaks down or if strong feedback loops such as the Amazon rainforest becoming a net carbon source emit its vast reserves of carbon. This would result in extreme and prolonged heatwaves and dry spells affecting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A major ocean current, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and becoming unstable due to ocean warming. A collapse commencing by 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Agriculture would face immense difficulties and water supplies would be drastically changed," explained the professor.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A surge of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if polar ice in Greenland and Antarctica melt abruptly, submerging coastal cities and towns. Differing from the other scenarios, this possibility is already known by infrastructure experts.
• Aerosol Effect: Global averages could also be increased by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is drastically reduced. This counterintuitive effect occurs because pollution particles from burning coal reflect sunlight from warming the ground.

Planning for the Unthinkable

These dire projections could be utilized in planning the building of long-term infrastructure, including new towns, nuclear power stations and water management networks. Awareness of these environmental threats could also accelerate the drive to slash carbon pollution.

The analysis formulated the severe projections using a blend of real-world events, climate models and established principles. These outcomes omit potential global problems like the devastation of food supplies and geopolitical instability.

The project was commissioned as part of a national risk assessment framework. Independent analyses have cautioned that insufficient focus was being allocated to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

Official experts has recommended that the UK must "prepare for two degrees of warming" and evaluate the dangers for 4C. Past policy documents have been described as being "insufficient" by environmental groups.

A government spokesperson noted: "Global warming is at the center of this government’s agenda, both preparing for impacts and becoming a renewable energy leader. It is crucial that the UK is resilient for the impacts."