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In October 2022, as Rishi Sunak took over as the UK's leader, he was the fifth UK leader to occupy the position in six years.

Triggered in the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in France, now on its fifth prime minister in 24 months – three of them in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a short-term solution. The EU’s number two economic power is trapped in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for decades – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no easy escape.

Governing Without a Majority

Key background: from the moment Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, France has had a divided assembly separated into three opposing factions – left, the far right and his own centre-right alliance – none with anything close to a majority.

Simultaneously, the country faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU threshold, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who lasted from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his new prime minister. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu presented his government team – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from allies and opponents alike.

So much so that the following day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in recent French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job virtually unworkable.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for another 48 hours in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the conclusion of his extension, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to avoid elections. The leader's team confirmed the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on that Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s critical test. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the 39-year-old PM outlined his financial plans, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were waiting for: Macron’s key policy would be frozen until 2027.

With the right-wing LR already on board, the Socialists said they would refuse to support no-confidence motions proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the administration would likely endure those ballots, due on Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

Changing Political Culture

The issue is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, like the PS, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – some are still itching to topple it.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR want him out.

To succeed, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth unstable premier in 24 months is, like his predecessors, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Although, by some miracle, the divided parliament summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Snap elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would face the same intractable arithmetic.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to step down. After winning the presidential election, his successor would disband the assembly and hope to secure a parliamentary majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the next occupant of the Elysée Palace will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having elected a far-right president, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Many think that transformation will not be feasible under the existing governmental framework. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic could be in its final stage.”