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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has participated in.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.