‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: War on Iran Constricts India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's households.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, availability of cooking gas are dwindling across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is flooded by video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies grow. Commercial LPG users appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in commercial eateries.

"Conditions are critical. LPG simply is unavailable," says a spokesperson of the an industry group.

Most eateries run either on commercial LPG cylinders or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in the capital, many in the southern states. People are switching to traditional burners and electric cookers to keep kitchens going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a fifth of eateries are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks dry up. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have dwindled with little backup. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no food items - it is nothing less than pathetic. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are fluctuating as supplies come and go. "Several establishments in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a fluid situation."

Retailers report a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Authority's View

Yet, the government maintains there is sufficient stock.

India has more than 300 million household consumers and spokespersons say supplies are being prioritized to households as conflict-related stress from the war in the Gulf impact energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the critical waterway, the strategic bottleneck now significantly disrupted by the war.

The relevant department says that it instructed refineries to maximise LPG output for household consumption, enhancing domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being prioritised for essential sectors such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been caused by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a senior official.

Growing Panic

Now the worry is moving beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the caption reads.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its oil. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the strait, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a industry commentator.

Based on shipping data and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Tens of millions of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The key weakness is LPG, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through Hormuz.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about around half of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be partially mitigated through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of panic buying.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Distributors are taking advantage of the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's oil supplies may be protected by worldwide shipping. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.